Economists Say the Recovery Is Beginning. But, Is It Really?


Numeous news stories have appeared recently proclaiming that the recession is over and that recovery is on the way.  Similar stories abound claiming that real estate has bottomed out and prices are on the way up.  But perhaps things aren’t quite so rosy as they would want us to believe.

In an effort to cheer for the administration’s policies the state controlled Associated Press loudly proclaims that the recession is over, “Survey: Most economists see recovery beginning“.  The story begins, “More than 80 percent of economists believe the recession is over and an expansion has begun, but they expect the recovery will be slow as worries over unemployment and high federal debt persist.” They downplay the fact that only 44 people responded to the survey.  This Reuters report says essentially the same thing.

But, how can there be a recovery without jobs.  AP continues,

Still, the federal deficit has ballooned and the jobless rate is expected to lag behind, as employers remain cautious.

The unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent in September from 9.7 percent, the Labor Department said earlier this month, the highest point in 26 years.

Forecasters expect the unemployment rate to continue to rise, to 10 percent in the first quarter of next year, before edging down to 9.5 percent by the end of 2010.

Marketwatch, however,  is not quite so optimistic.

And this story says the,

Real US unemployment rate at 16 pct: Fed official.

An finally, here’s a story that you won’t in the US media.

The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination  –  and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year.

This would suggest that the recession is much larger than anything we were ever led to believe.  It would seem to be worldwide and might not be quite as near as we hope.

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About rereno

Real estate investor
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